H&H Export 2–1 UNAN Managua: Result & Stats

H&H Export

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

UNAN Managua

3/13/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 9Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

H&H Export51%

×Draw23%

UNAN Managua26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&H ExportExpected goals in this matchUNAN Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.21

H&H Export

1.80

UNAN Managua

1.21

H&H Export creates 49% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 93 away

1.63

creates per match

1.08

1.34

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

H&H Export

1.63

UNAN Managua

1.08

allows per match

H&H Export

1.34

UNAN Managua

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&H Export+0.00on par

UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&H Export ↓

UNAN Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

H&H Export or draw

74%

H&H Export or UNAN Managua

77%

Draw or UNAN Managua

49%

Winning margin

H&H Export wins by 2+

28%

UNAN Managua wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

H&H Export 1+ goals

83%

H&H Export 2+ goals

54%

H&H Export 3+ goals

27%

UNAN Managua 1+ goals

70%

UNAN Managua 2+ goals

34%

UNAN Managua 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

H&H Export (draw refunded)

67%

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&H Export at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 95 matches

UNAN Managua away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&H Export attack 1.63 + UNAN Managua defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

UNAN Managua attack 1.08 + H&H Export defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

H&H Export scores more

51%

level

23%

UNAN Managua scores more

26%

H&H Export at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "H&H Export will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: H&H Export vs UNAN Managua

H&H Export vs UNAN Managua — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: H&H Export vs UNAN Managua