H&H Export 3–3 Managua: Result & Stats

H&H Export

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Managua

2/4/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 3Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

H&H Export39%

×Draw26%

Managua35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&H ExportExpected goals in this matchManagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

H&H Export

1.40

Managua

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 139 away

1.63

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

H&H Export

1.63

Managua

1.28

allows per match

H&H Export

1.34

Managua

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&H Export+0.00on par

Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&H Export ↓

Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

H&H Export or draw

65%

H&H Export or Managua

74%

Draw or Managua

61%

Winning margin

H&H Export wins by 2+

18%

Managua wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

H&H Export 1+ goals

75%

H&H Export 2+ goals

41%

H&H Export 3+ goals

17%

Managua 1+ goals

73%

Managua 2+ goals

38%

Managua 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

H&H Export (draw refunded)

53%

Managua (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&H Export at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 95 matches

Managua away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&H Export attack 1.63 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Managua attack 1.28 + H&H Export defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

H&H Export scores more

39%

level

26%

Managua scores more

35%

H&H Export at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "H&H Export will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: H&H Export vs Managua

H&H Export vs Managua — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: H&H Export vs Managua