Gyori ETO FC 0–2 Budafoki LC: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO FC

FT

0 – 2

Budafoki LC

7/11/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lipóti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Gyori ETO FC25%

×Draw21%

Budafoki LC55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO FCExpected goals in this matchBudafoki LC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.17

Gyori ETO FC

1.40

Budafoki LC

2.17

Budafoki LC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.79

creates per match

2.42

1.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.79

Budafoki LC

2.42

allows per match

Gyori ETO FC

1.93

Budafoki LC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Budafoki LC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO FC ↓

Budafoki LC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Gyori ETO FC or draw

45%

Gyori ETO FC or Budafoki LC

79%

Draw or Budafoki LC

75%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+

11%

Budafoki LC wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals

75%

Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals

41%

Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals

17%

Budafoki LC 1+ goals

89%

Budafoki LC 2+ goals

64%

Budafoki LC 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)

31%

Budafoki LC (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO FC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Budafoki LC away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO FC attack 1.79 + Budafoki LC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Budafoki LC attack 2.42 + Gyori ETO FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gyori ETO FC scores more

25%

level

21%

Budafoki LC scores more

55%

Budafoki LC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Budafoki LC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff