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Gyeongju W vs Incheon Red Angels W — WK-League 2026

Gyeongju W
Gyeongju W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Incheon Red Angels W
Incheon Red Angels W
4/25/2024WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 8Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gyeongju W37%
×Draw26%
Incheon Red Angels W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju W
1.35
Incheon Red Angels W
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 80 away

creates per match

Gyeongju W
1.90
Incheon Red Angels W
1.66

allows per match

Gyeongju W
1.02
Incheon Red Angels W
0.80

finishing

Gyeongju W+0.00on par
Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju W ↓

Incheon Red Angels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gyeongju W or draw
63%
Gyeongju W or Incheon Red Angels W
74%
Draw or Incheon Red Angels W
63%

Winning margin

Gyeongju W wins by 2+
17%
Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gyeongju W 1+ goals
74%
Gyeongju W 2+ goals
39%
Gyeongju W 3+ goals
15%
Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals
74%
Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals
39%
Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju W (draw refunded)
50%
Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.02 · 89 matches

Incheon Red Angels W away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju W attack 1.90 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.35

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.66 + Gyeongju W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gyeongju W scores more
37%
level
26%
Incheon Red Angels W scores more
37%

Gyeongju W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gyeongju W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongju W vs Incheon Red Angels W

Incheon Red Angels W beat Gyeongju W 2-1 in WK-League on April 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial in Gyeongju.