Gyeongju W 2–2 Boeun Sangmu W: Result & Stats

Gyeongju W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Boeun Sangmu W

8/29/2023

WK-League · Round 21Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Gyeongju W57%

×Draw23%

Boeun Sangmu W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongju WExpected goals in this matchBoeun Sangmu W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.98

Gyeongju W

1.80

Boeun Sangmu W

0.98

Gyeongju W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 77 away

1.90

creates per match

0.95

1.02

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Gyeongju W

1.90

Boeun Sangmu W

0.95

allows per match

Gyeongju W

1.02

Boeun Sangmu W

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongju W+0.00on par

Boeun Sangmu W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju W ↓

Boeun Sangmu W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gyeongju W or draw

80%

Gyeongju W or Boeun Sangmu W

77%

Draw or Boeun Sangmu W

43%

Winning margin

Gyeongju W wins by 2+

32%

Boeun Sangmu W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gyeongju W 1+ goals

83%

Gyeongju W 2+ goals

54%

Gyeongju W 3+ goals

27%

Boeun Sangmu W 1+ goals

62%

Boeun Sangmu W 2+ goals

26%

Boeun Sangmu W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju W (draw refunded)

74%

Boeun Sangmu W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.02 · 89 matches

Boeun Sangmu W away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju W attack 1.90 + Boeun Sangmu W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Boeun Sangmu W attack 0.95 + Gyeongju W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gyeongju W scores more

57%

level

23%

Boeun Sangmu W scores more

20%

Gyeongju W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gyeongju W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff