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Gyeongju HNP vs Yangju Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
3/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundGyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gyeongju HNP63%
×Draw22%
Yangju Citizen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju HNP
1.92
Yangju Citizen
0.83

Gyeongju HNP creates 131% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gyeongju HNP
2.00
Yangju Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Gyeongju HNP
0.50
Yangju Citizen
1.83

finishing

Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju HNP ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gyeongju HNP or draw
84%
Gyeongju HNP or Yangju Citizen
78%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
37%

Winning margin

Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+
38%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals
85%
Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals
57%
Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals
30%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
56%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
20%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)
80%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju HNP at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju HNP attack 2.00 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Yangju Citizen attack 1.17 + Gyeongju HNP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gyeongju HNP scores more
63%
level
22%
Yangju Citizen scores more
16%

Gyeongju HNP at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gyeongju HNP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongju HNP vs Yangju Citizen

Gyeongju HNP and Yangju Citizen drew 0-0 in FA Cup on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Gyeongju Citizen Stadium in Gyeongju.