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Gyeongju HNP vs Busan Transportation — K3 League 2026

Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Busan Transportation
Busan Transportation
11/4/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 29Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Gyeongju HNP41%
×Draw27%
Busan Transportation32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju HNP
1.32
Busan Transportation
1.13

Gyeongju HNP creates 17% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 107 away

creates per match

Gyeongju HNP
1.41
Busan Transportation
1.33

allows per match

Gyeongju HNP
0.93
Busan Transportation
1.23

finishing

Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par
Busan Transportation+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju HNP ↓

Busan Transportation →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gyeongju HNP or draw
68%
Gyeongju HNP or Busan Transportation
73%
Draw or Busan Transportation
59%

Winning margin

Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+
19%
Busan Transportation wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals
73%
Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals
38%
Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals
15%
Busan Transportation 1+ goals
68%
Busan Transportation 2+ goals
31%
Busan Transportation 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)
56%
Busan Transportation (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju HNP at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 113 matches

Busan Transportation away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju HNP attack 1.41 + Busan Transportation defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Busan Transportation attack 1.33 + Gyeongju HNP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gyeongju HNP scores more
41%
level
27%
Busan Transportation scores more
32%

Gyeongju HNP at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gyeongju HNP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongju HNP vs Busan Transportation

Gyeongju HNP beat Busan Transportation 3-1 in K3 League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial in Gyeongju.