Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3–3 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

FT

3 – 3

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

D. Jarka 90+2'

K. Pipia 20'

A. Dzido 13'

D. Rucki 90+4'

T. Nowak 85'

S. Szymanski 15'

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry33%

×Draw23%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Tarnowskie GóryExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.71

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.48

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.71

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.49

creates per match

1.97

1.45

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.49

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.97

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.45

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw

57%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

77%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

67%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

16%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

77%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

43%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

19%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

82%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

51%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

44%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

33%

level

23%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

43%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Dzido

15'

S. Szymanski

20'

K. Pipia

85'

T. Nowak

90+2'

D. Jarka

90+4'

D. Rucki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff