Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 0–2 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

FT

0 – 2

Goczałkowice Zdrój

10/10/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry40%

×Draw25%

Goczałkowice Zdrój35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Tarnowskie GóryExpected goals in this matchGoczałkowice Zdrój

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.33

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.43

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 102 away

1.49

creates per match

1.22

1.45

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.49

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.22

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.45

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw

65%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Goczałkowice Zdrój

75%

Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

60%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

19%

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

76%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

42%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

17%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

74%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

38%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

53%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

40%

level

25%

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

35%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff