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Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers — K League 1 2026

Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
12/3/2023K League 1K League 1 · Championship Round - 5Gwangju Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gwangju FC36%
×Draw27%
Pohang Steelers37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwangju FC
1.23
Pohang Steelers
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 154 away

creates per match

Gwangju FC
1.18
Pohang Steelers
1.32

allows per match

Gwangju FC
1.22
Pohang Steelers
1.28

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par
Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Pohang Steelers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw
63%
Gwangju FC or Pohang Steelers
73%
Draw or Pohang Steelers
64%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+
15%
Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals
71%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
35%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
13%
Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
72%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
36%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
49%
Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.18 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pohang Steelers attack 1.32 + Gwangju FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gwangju FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Pohang Steelers scores more
37%

Pohang Steelers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Gwangju FC 0–0 Pohang Steelers

Gwangju FC and Pohang Steelers drew 0-0 in K League 1 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Gwangju Football Stadium in Gwangju.