Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gwangju FC

Preview

10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

7/22/2026

K League 1 · Round 19Gwangju Football Stadium

Big match

38%

Gwangju FC

model favours

38%27%35%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gwangju FC38%

×Draw27%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwangju FCExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.23

Gwangju FC

1.28

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 117 away

1.18

creates per match

1.23

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Gwangju FC

1.18

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

Gwangju FC

1.22

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw

65%

Gwangju FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

73%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

62%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

17%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

72%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

37%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

14%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

71%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

35%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

52%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.18 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Gwangju FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gwangju FC scores more

38%

level

27%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

35%

Gwangju FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)
Gwangju FC outscore their xG (0.9 vs 0.3 expected)
Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Gwangju FC

Balanced

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Attack-heavy

46%Possession57%

81%Pass accuracy85%

9.9Shots14.2

0.35xGBiggest gap2.54

Gwangju FCGimcheon Sangmu FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Gwangju FC

3

Draws

5

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 30%

1–11–11–00–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

FC

LDLLD

FC

DDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff