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Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
6/15/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 17Gwangju Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gwangju FC38%
×Draw27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwangju FC
1.28
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 117 away

creates per match

Gwangju FC
1.18
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Gwangju FC
1.22
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw
65%
Gwangju FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
73%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
62%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+
17%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals
72%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
37%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
14%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
71%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
35%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
52%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.18 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Gwangju FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gwangju FC scores more
38%
level
27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
35%

Gwangju FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gwangju FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 in K League 1 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Gwangju Football Stadium in Gwangju.