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Güssing vs Pinkafeld — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Güssing
Güssing
CANC
15:30
Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
5/16/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 26Stadion Güssing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Güssing31%
×Draw22%
Pinkafeld47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güssing
1.62
Pinkafeld
2.02

Pinkafeld creates 25% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 72 away

creates per match

Güssing
1.24
Pinkafeld
1.82

allows per match

Güssing
2.22
Pinkafeld
2.00

finishing

Güssing+0.00on par
Pinkafeld+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güssing ↓

Pinkafeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Güssing or draw
53%
Güssing or Pinkafeld
78%
Draw or Pinkafeld
69%

Winning margin

Güssing wins by 2+
15%
Pinkafeld wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Güssing 1+ goals
80%
Güssing 2+ goals
48%
Güssing 3+ goals
22%
Pinkafeld 1+ goals
87%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
60%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Güssing (draw refunded)
40%
Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güssing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.22 · 41 matches

Pinkafeld away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.00 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güssing attack 1.24 + Pinkafeld defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Pinkafeld attack 1.82 + Güssing defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Güssing scores more
31%
level
22%
Pinkafeld scores more
47%

Pinkafeld at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Güssing face Pinkafeld (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Güssing hosting Pinkafeld. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Güssing host Pinkafeld at Stadion Güssing.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.