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Güssing vs Markt Allhau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Güssing
Güssing
FT
2 – 1
Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
9/4/2019Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 6Stadion Güssing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Güssing37%
×Draw22%
Markt Allhau40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güssing
1.72
Markt Allhau
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

Güssing
1.24
Markt Allhau
1.37

allows per match

Güssing
2.22
Markt Allhau
2.20

finishing

Güssing+0.00on par
Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güssing ↓

Markt Allhau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Güssing or draw
60%
Güssing or Markt Allhau
78%
Draw or Markt Allhau
63%

Winning margin

Güssing wins by 2+
19%
Markt Allhau wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Güssing 1+ goals
82%
Güssing 2+ goals
51%
Güssing 3+ goals
25%
Markt Allhau 1+ goals
83%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
54%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Güssing (draw refunded)
48%
Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güssing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.22 · 41 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güssing attack 1.24 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Güssing defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Güssing scores more
37%
level
22%
Markt Allhau scores more
40%

Markt Allhau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Markt Allhau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Güssing 2–1 Markt Allhau

Güssing beat Markt Allhau 2-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on September 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Güssing in Güssing.