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Güssing vs Horitschon — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Güssing
Güssing
CANC
00:00
Horitschon
Horitschon
4/18/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 22Stadion Güssing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Güssing35%
×Draw21%
Horitschon43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güssing
1.79
Horitschon
1.99

Horitschon creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 88 away

creates per match

Güssing
1.24
Horitschon
1.76

allows per match

Güssing
2.22
Horitschon
2.33

finishing

Güssing+0.00on par
Horitschon+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güssing ↓

Horitschon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Güssing or draw
57%
Güssing or Horitschon
79%
Draw or Horitschon
65%

Winning margin

Güssing wins by 2+
18%
Horitschon wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Güssing 1+ goals
83%
Güssing 2+ goals
53%
Güssing 3+ goals
26%
Horitschon 1+ goals
86%
Horitschon 2+ goals
59%
Horitschon 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Güssing (draw refunded)
45%
Horitschon (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güssing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.22 · 41 matches

Horitschon away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güssing attack 1.24 + Horitschon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Horitschon attack 1.76 + Güssing defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Güssing scores more
35%
level
21%
Horitschon scores more
43%

Horitschon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Güssing face Horitschon (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Güssing hosting Horitschon. Match starts April 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Güssing host Horitschon at Stadion Güssing.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.