Gurten 4–2 Weiz: Result & Stats

Gurten

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Weiz

F. Wimmleitner 90+1', 54' (pen), 15'

J. Kreuzer 48'

R. Janjiš 57'

D. Prskalo 10'

11/2/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Gurten52%

×Draw22%

Weiz25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchWeiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.28

Gurten

1.92

Weiz

1.28

Gurten creates 50% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 104 away

1.75

creates per match

1.71

0.85

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Gurten

1.75

Weiz

1.71

allows per match

Gurten

0.85

Weiz

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

Weiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Weiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

75%

Gurten or Weiz

78%

Draw or Weiz

48%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

30%

Weiz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

85%

Gurten 2+ goals

57%

Gurten 3+ goals

30%

Weiz 1+ goals

72%

Weiz 2+ goals

37%

Weiz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

67%

Weiz (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Weiz away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.75 + Weiz defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.92

Weiz attack 1.71 + Gurten defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gurten scores more

52%

level

22%

Weiz scores more

25%

Gurten at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Prskalo

15'

F. Wimmleitner

46'

F. Schütz← M. Miletić

48'

J. Kreuzer

54'

F. WimmleitnerPenalty

57'

P. Riegler← N. Weinberger

57'

R. Janjiš

74'

S. Gabbichler← A. Pieber

77'

D. Bauer← T. Kreilinger

90+1'

B. Öhlböck← R. Wirth

90+1'

F. Wimmleitner

Gurten

Weiz

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽3

▼

Manager: P. Madritsch

46'▲F. Schütz←▼M. Miletić

77'▲D. Bauer←▼T. Kreilinger

90+1'▲B. Öhlböck←▼R. Wirth

Gurten substitutes

SchützBauerÖhlböckBrunthalerBerer

Manager: G. Kaufmann

57'▲P. Riegler←▼N. Weinberger

74'▲S. Gabbichler←▼A. Pieber

Weiz substitutes

RieglerGabbichlerStraussbergerGrossegger

Match Recap: Gurten vs Weiz

Gurten beat Weiz 4-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on November 2, 2019.

Goals: D. Prskalo (10'), F. Wimmleitner (15', 54' pen, 90+1'), J. Kreuzer (48'), R. Janjiš (57').

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.

Gurten vs Weiz — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gurten vs Weiz