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Gurten vs Gleisdorf 09 — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
0 – 1
Gleisdorf 09
Gleisdorf 09
3/9/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 16Park21-Arena Gurten (Gurten)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Gurten48%
×Draw24%
Gleisdorf 0928%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.66
Gleisdorf 09
1.21

Gurten creates 37% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 105 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.72
Gleisdorf 09
1.54

allows per match

Gurten
0.88
Gleisdorf 09
1.60

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Gleisdorf 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
72%
Gurten or Gleisdorf 09
76%
Draw or Gleisdorf 09
52%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
25%
Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
81%
Gurten 2+ goals
49%
Gurten 3+ goals
23%
Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals
70%
Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals
34%
Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
63%
Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.88 · 114 matches

Gleisdorf 09 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.72 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.54 + Gurten defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gurten scores more
48%
level
24%
Gleisdorf 09 scores more
28%

Gurten at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gurten vs Gleisdorf 09

Gleisdorf 09 beat Gurten 1-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten (Gurten).