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Guria vs Dinamo Tbilisi — David Kipiani Cup 2026

Guria
Guria
Preview
12:30
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
7/26/2026David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32
38%
Guria
model favours
38%27%35%

Dinamo Tbilisi score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guria38%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Tbilisi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guria
1.30
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Guria
1.60
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.71

allows per match

Guria
1.80
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.00

finishing

Guria+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guria ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guria or draw
65%
Guria or Dinamo Tbilisi
73%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi
62%

Winning margin

Guria wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guria 1+ goals
73%
Guria 2+ goals
37%
Guria 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Guria (draw refunded)
52%
Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guria at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guria attack 1.60 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 0.71 + Guria defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guria scores more
38%
level
27%
Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
35%

Guria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Tbilisi win just 18% of their away games
  • 43% of Dinamo Tbilisi’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Guria and Dinamo Tbilisi have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Guria
WWWWW
Tbilisi
WLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guria face Dinamo Tbilisi (David Kipiani Cup)

David Kipiani Cup returns with Guria hosting Dinamo Tbilisi. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.