Gumi Sportstoto W 1–2 Suwon FMC W: Result & Stats

Gumi Sportstoto W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Suwon FMC W

8/20/2024

WK-League · Round 22Sejong Civic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Gumi Sportstoto W27%

×Draw24%

Suwon FMC W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gumi Sportstoto WExpected goals in this matchSuwon FMC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.67

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.17

Suwon FMC W

1.67

Suwon FMC W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 89 away

1.13

creates per match

1.61

1.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.13

Suwon FMC W

1.61

allows per match

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.73

Suwon FMC W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gumi Sportstoto W+0.00on par

Suwon FMC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gumi Sportstoto W ↓

Suwon FMC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gumi Sportstoto W or draw

51%

Gumi Sportstoto W or Suwon FMC W

76%

Draw or Suwon FMC W

73%

Winning margin

Gumi Sportstoto W wins by 2+

11%

Suwon FMC W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gumi Sportstoto W 1+ goals

69%

Gumi Sportstoto W 2+ goals

33%

Gumi Sportstoto W 3+ goals

11%

Suwon FMC W 1+ goals

81%

Suwon FMC W 2+ goals

50%

Suwon FMC W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Gumi Sportstoto W (draw refunded)

35%

Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gumi Sportstoto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

Suwon FMC W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gumi Sportstoto W attack 1.13 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Suwon FMC W attack 1.61 + Gumi Sportstoto W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gumi Sportstoto W scores more

27%

level

24%

Suwon FMC W scores more

49%

Suwon FMC W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Suwon FMC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff