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Gumi Sportstoto W vs Changnyeong W — WK-League 2026

Gumi Sportstoto W
Gumi Sportstoto W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Changnyeong W
Changnyeong W
4/18/2024WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 6Sejong Civic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Gumi Sportstoto W46%
×Draw24%
Changnyeong W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gumi Sportstoto W
1.67
Changnyeong W
1.32

Gumi Sportstoto W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Gumi Sportstoto W
1.13
Changnyeong W
0.91

allows per match

Gumi Sportstoto W
1.73
Changnyeong W
2.20

finishing

Gumi Sportstoto W+0.00on par
Changnyeong W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gumi Sportstoto W ↓

Changnyeong W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gumi Sportstoto W or draw
70%
Gumi Sportstoto W or Changnyeong W
76%
Draw or Changnyeong W
54%

Winning margin

Gumi Sportstoto W wins by 2+
24%
Changnyeong W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gumi Sportstoto W 1+ goals
81%
Gumi Sportstoto W 2+ goals
50%
Gumi Sportstoto W 3+ goals
23%
Changnyeong W 1+ goals
73%
Changnyeong W 2+ goals
38%
Changnyeong W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gumi Sportstoto W (draw refunded)
60%
Changnyeong W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gumi Sportstoto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

Changnyeong W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gumi Sportstoto W attack 1.13 + Changnyeong W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Changnyeong W attack 0.91 + Gumi Sportstoto W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gumi Sportstoto W scores more
46%
level
24%
Changnyeong W scores more
30%

Gumi Sportstoto W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gumi Sportstoto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Gumi Sportstoto W 4–0 Changnyeong W

Gumi Sportstoto W beat Changnyeong W 4-0 in WK-League on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sejong Civic Stadium in Sejong.