Gumi Sportstoto W 3–2 Changnyeong W: Result & Stats

Gumi Sportstoto W

FT

3 – 2

Changnyeong W

Kim Seong-Mi 62'

Sun Soo-Hyun 35'

J. Noh 18'

Kim Ji-Eun 83'

H. Son 28'

6/28/2021

WK-League · Round 10Sejong Central Park Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Gumi Sportstoto W45%

×Draw24%

Changnyeong W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gumi Sportstoto WExpected goals in this matchChangnyeong W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.32

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.65

Changnyeong W

1.32

Gumi Sportstoto W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 80 away

1.13

creates per match

0.91

1.73

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.13

Changnyeong W

0.91

allows per match

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.73

Changnyeong W

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gumi Sportstoto W+0.00on par

Changnyeong W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gumi Sportstoto W ↓

Changnyeong W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gumi Sportstoto W or draw

69%

Gumi Sportstoto W or Changnyeong W

76%

Draw or Changnyeong W

55%

Winning margin

Gumi Sportstoto W wins by 2+

23%

Changnyeong W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gumi Sportstoto W 1+ goals

81%

Gumi Sportstoto W 2+ goals

49%

Gumi Sportstoto W 3+ goals

23%

Changnyeong W 1+ goals

73%

Changnyeong W 2+ goals

38%

Changnyeong W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gumi Sportstoto W (draw refunded)

60%

Changnyeong W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gumi Sportstoto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

Changnyeong W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.17 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gumi Sportstoto W attack 1.13 + Changnyeong W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Changnyeong W attack 0.91 + Gumi Sportstoto W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gumi Sportstoto W scores more

45%

level

24%

Changnyeong W scores more

31%

Gumi Sportstoto W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gumi Sportstoto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Noh

28'

H. Son

35'

Sun Soo-Hyun

62'

Kim Seong-Mi

83'

Kim Ji-Eun

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff