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Gumi Sportstoto W vs Boeun Sangmu W — WK-League 2026

Gumi Sportstoto W
Gumi Sportstoto W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Boeun Sangmu W
Boeun Sangmu W
5/9/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 10Sejong Central Park Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Gumi Sportstoto W39%
×Draw25%
Boeun Sangmu W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gumi Sportstoto W
1.42
Boeun Sangmu W
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

creates per match

Gumi Sportstoto W
1.13
Boeun Sangmu W
0.95

allows per match

Gumi Sportstoto W
1.73
Boeun Sangmu W
1.70

finishing

Gumi Sportstoto W+0.00on par
Boeun Sangmu W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gumi Sportstoto W ↓

Boeun Sangmu W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gumi Sportstoto W or draw
65%
Gumi Sportstoto W or Boeun Sangmu W
75%
Draw or Boeun Sangmu W
61%

Winning margin

Gumi Sportstoto W wins by 2+
18%
Boeun Sangmu W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gumi Sportstoto W 1+ goals
76%
Gumi Sportstoto W 2+ goals
41%
Gumi Sportstoto W 3+ goals
17%
Boeun Sangmu W 1+ goals
74%
Boeun Sangmu W 2+ goals
39%
Boeun Sangmu W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gumi Sportstoto W (draw refunded)
52%
Boeun Sangmu W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gumi Sportstoto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

Boeun Sangmu W away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gumi Sportstoto W attack 1.13 + Boeun Sangmu W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Boeun Sangmu W attack 0.95 + Gumi Sportstoto W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gumi Sportstoto W scores more
39%
level
25%
Boeun Sangmu W scores more
35%

Gumi Sportstoto W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gumi Sportstoto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Gumi Sportstoto W 1–1 Boeun Sangmu W

Gumi Sportstoto W and Boeun Sangmu W drew 1-1 in WK-League on May 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sejong Central Park Soccer Field in Sejong.