Guimaraes 1–0 Rio Ave: Result & Stats

Guimaraes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rio Ave

12/23/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 15Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Guimaraes45%

×Draw27%

Rio Ave28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchRio Ave

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Guimaraes

1.35

Rio Ave

1.00

Guimaraes creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.13

creates per match

0.68

1.31

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.13

Rio Ave

0.68

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.31

Rio Ave

1.57

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Guimaraes+0.18scores more

Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Rio Ave →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

72%

Guimaraes or Rio Ave

73%

Draw or Rio Ave

55%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

21%

Rio Ave wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

74%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

39%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

15%

Rio Ave 1+ goals

63%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

26%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

62%

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.13 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Guimaraes defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guimaraes scores more

45%

level

27%

Rio Ave scores more

28%

Guimaraes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff