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Guimaraes vs Belenenses — Primeira Liga 2018

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
10/30/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 9Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guimaraes51%
×Draw26%
Belenenses22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes
1.49
Belenenses
0.88

Guimaraes creates 69% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

creates per match

Guimaraes
1.57
Belenenses
0.72

allows per match

Guimaraes
1.04
Belenenses
1.41

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw
78%
Guimaraes or Belenenses
74%
Draw or Belenenses
49%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+
26%
Belenenses wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals
77%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
44%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
19%
Belenenses 1+ goals
59%
Belenenses 2+ goals
22%
Belenenses 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)
70%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 136 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.57 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Guimaraes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guimaraes scores more
51%
level
26%
Belenenses scores more
22%

Guimaraes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Guimaraes 5–0 Belenenses

Guimaraes beat Belenenses 5-0 in Primeira Liga on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.