Guimaraes 2–1 Arouca: Result & Stats

Guimaraes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Arouca

1/15/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 17Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Guimaraes47%

×Draw26%

Arouca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchArouca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.09

Guimaraes

1.50

Arouca

1.09

Guimaraes creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.31

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.13

Arouca

0.87

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.31

Arouca

1.87

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Guimaraes+0.18scores more

Arouca+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Arouca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

72%

Guimaraes or Arouca

74%

Draw or Arouca

53%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

23%

Arouca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

78%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

44%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

19%

Arouca 1+ goals

66%

Arouca 2+ goals

30%

Arouca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

63%

Arouca (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Arouca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.13 + Arouca defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arouca attack 0.87 + Guimaraes defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guimaraes scores more

47%

level

26%

Arouca scores more

28%

Guimaraes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff