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Guilsfield vs Llandudno — League #111 2026

Guilsfield
Guilsfield
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Llandudno
Llandudno
J. Hyne 85'
I. Matthews 35'
D. Holland 90' (pen)
F. Murtas 54'
E. Roberts 45'
3/2/2024League #111League #111 · North - 25Guilsfield Community Centre Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Guilsfield36%
×Draw25%
Llandudno39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guilsfield
1.37
Llandudno
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Guilsfield
1.36
Llandudno
1.50

allows per match

Guilsfield
1.36
Llandudno
1.38

finishing

Guilsfield+0.00on par
Llandudno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guilsfield ↓

Llandudno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guilsfield or draw
61%
Guilsfield or Llandudno
75%
Draw or Llandudno
64%

Winning margin

Guilsfield wins by 2+
16%
Llandudno wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guilsfield 1+ goals
75%
Guilsfield 2+ goals
40%
Guilsfield 3+ goals
16%
Llandudno 1+ goals
76%
Llandudno 2+ goals
42%
Llandudno 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guilsfield (draw refunded)
48%
Llandudno (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guilsfield at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Llandudno away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guilsfield attack 1.36 + Llandudno defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Llandudno attack 1.50 + Guilsfield defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guilsfield scores more
36%
level
25%
Llandudno scores more
39%

Llandudno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llandudno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
I. Matthews
45'
E. Roberts
54'
F. Murtas
85'
J. Hyne
90'
D. HollandPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Guilsfield 2–3 Llandudno

Llandudno beat Guilsfield 3-2 in League #111 on March 2, 2024.

Goals: I. Matthews (35'), E. Roberts (45'), F. Murtas (54'), J. Hyne (85'), D. Holland (90' pen).

The match was played at Guilsfield Community Centre Ground in Guilsfield / Cegidfa, Powys.