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Guayaquil vs El Nacional — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Guayaquil
Guayaquil
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
El Nacional
El Nacional
4/15/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 5Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Guayaquil41%
×Draw29%
El Nacional30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil
1.23
El Nacional
1.00

Guayaquil creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

creates per match

Guayaquil
1.02
El Nacional
0.93

allows per match

Guayaquil
1.07
El Nacional
1.44

finishing

Guayaquil+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guayaquil or draw
70%
Guayaquil or El Nacional
71%
Draw or El Nacional
59%

Winning margin

Guayaquil wins by 2+
18%
El Nacional wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guayaquil 1+ goals
71%
Guayaquil 2+ goals
35%
Guayaquil 3+ goals
13%
El Nacional 1+ goals
63%
El Nacional 2+ goals
26%
El Nacional 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil (draw refunded)
58%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

El Nacional away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil attack 1.02 + El Nacional defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

El Nacional attack 0.93 + Guayaquil defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guayaquil scores more
41%
level
29%
El Nacional scores more
30%

Guayaquil at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guayaquil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guayaquil 2 – 1 El Nacional

Guayaquil beat El Nacional 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera in Guayaquil.