Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guayaquil City FC vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
M. Parrales 73'
M. Balda 12'
C. Orejuela 26'
7/31/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 2Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guayaquil City FC47%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.37
Deportivo Cuenca
0.95

Guayaquil City FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 131 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.24
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.05
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
74%
Guayaquil City FC or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
53%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
75%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
40%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
64%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.24 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
47%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
26%

Guayaquil City FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
M. Balda
26'
C. Orejuela↳ D. Dorregaray
57'
Jhon Rodrìguez
60'
P. Larrea← F. Mera
60'
M. Orlando← D. Dorregaray
67'
Jean Humanante
67'
A. Quiñonez← R. César
68'
F. Caicedo← K. Sambonino
73'
M. Parrales
74'
Andrés Parrales
79'
A. Naula← L. Chicaiza
82'
A. Bedoya← M. Balda
82'
D. Noboa← J. Humanante
88'
D. Pazmiño← J. Rodríguez
90+2'
Flavio Caicedo
90+4'
Jeronimo Costa
90'
Klebinho← M. Caicedo

Possession

51%Guayaquil

Shots

4Guayaquil

Statistics

GuayaquilDeportivo
Overview
51%Possession49%
4Total Shots9
2Corners9
18Fouls22
Shots
4Total Shots9
4On Target5
0Off Target4
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls22
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca

Guayaquil City FC beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on July 31, 2021.

Goals: M. Balda (12'), C. Orejuela (26'), M. Parrales (73').

Guayaquil City FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.