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Guastatoya vs Achuapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Guastatoya
Guastatoya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Achuapa
Achuapa
3/3/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 9Estadio David Cordón Hichos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Guastatoya59%
×Draw24%
Achuapa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guastatoya
1.67
Achuapa
0.76

Guastatoya creates 120% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 122 away

creates per match

Guastatoya
1.59
Achuapa
0.70

allows per match

Guastatoya
0.82
Achuapa
1.75

finishing

Guastatoya+0.00on par
Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guastatoya ↓

Achuapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guastatoya or draw
83%
Guastatoya or Achuapa
76%
Draw or Achuapa
41%

Winning margin

Guastatoya wins by 2+
33%
Achuapa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guastatoya 1+ goals
81%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
50%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
23%
Achuapa 1+ goals
53%
Achuapa 2+ goals
18%
Achuapa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guastatoya (draw refunded)
78%
Achuapa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guastatoya at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guastatoya attack 1.59 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Guastatoya defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guastatoya scores more
59%
level
24%
Achuapa scores more
17%

Guastatoya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Guastatoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Guastatoya 1–1 Achuapa

Guastatoya and Achuapa drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio David Cordón Hichos in Guastatoya.