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Guarnizo vs Revilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Guarnizo
Guarnizo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Revilla
Revilla
11/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio El Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Guarnizo48%
×Draw26%
Revilla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarnizo
1.48
Revilla
1.01

Guarnizo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 81 away

creates per match

Guarnizo
1.23
Revilla
1.04

allows per match

Guarnizo
0.98
Revilla
1.72

finishing

Guarnizo+0.00on par
Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarnizo ↓

Revilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guarnizo or draw
74%
Guarnizo or Revilla
74%
Draw or Revilla
52%

Winning margin

Guarnizo wins by 2+
24%
Revilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarnizo 1+ goals
77%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
43%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
19%
Revilla 1+ goals
64%
Revilla 2+ goals
27%
Revilla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guarnizo (draw refunded)
65%
Revilla (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarnizo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 111 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Revilla attack 1.04 + Guarnizo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guarnizo scores more
48%
level
26%
Revilla scores more
26%

Guarnizo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Guarnizo 4–1 Revilla

Guarnizo beat Revilla 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Pilar in Guarnizo.