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Guarani U20 vs Ituano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20
Preview
18:00
Ituano U20
Ituano U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
49%
Guarani U20
model favours
49%23%28%

Guarani U20 have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Guarani U2049%
×Draw23%
Ituano U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
1.83
Ituano U20
1.34

Guarani U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
Ituano U20
1.80

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
Ituano U20
1.45

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
72%
Guarani U20 or Ituano U20
77%
Draw or Ituano U20
51%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
27%
Ituano U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
84%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
54%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
28%
Ituano U20 1+ goals
74%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
39%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Ituano U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ituano U20 attack 1.80 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
49%
level
23%
Ituano U20 scores more
28%

Guarani U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Guarani U20 sit 2, Ituano U20 36 in the table
  • Guarani U20 and Ituano U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWWWL
U20
DDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guarani U20 face Ituano U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Guarani U20 hosting Ituano U20. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.