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Guarani U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20
Preview
18:00
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
8/7/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 10
62%
Guarani U20
model favours
62%20%18%

Guarani U20 have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Guarani U2062%
×Draw20%
Água Santa U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
2.10
Água Santa U20
1.03

Guarani U20 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
82%
Guarani U20 or Água Santa U20
80%
Draw or Água Santa U20
38%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
38%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
88%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
62%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
35%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
64%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
28%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
62%
level
20%
Água Santa U20 scores more
18%

Guarani U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 70% of Água Santa U20’s matches
  • Guarani U20 and Água Santa U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWWWL
U20
DWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Guarani U20 host Água Santa U20

August 7, 2026: Guarani U20 take on Água Santa U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.