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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
PST
22:00
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
8/1/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Club Guaraní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad44%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Iteno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.36
Sportivo Iteno
1.04

Guaraní de Trinidad creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 63 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
71%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Sportivo Iteno
73%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
56%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
21%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
74%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
39%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
61%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
44%
level
27%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
29%

Guaraní de Trinidad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guaraní de Trinidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Guaraní de Trinidad host Sportivo Iteno

August 1, 2020: Guaraní de Trinidad take on Sportivo Iteno in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Guaraní de Trinidad host Sportivo Iteno at Estadio Club Guaraní.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.