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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
PST
00:00
Resistencia
Resistencia
3/29/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 2Estadio Club Guaraní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad34%
×Draw29%
Resistencia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.08
Resistencia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 83 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
63%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Resistencia
71%
Draw or Resistencia
66%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
14%
Resistencia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
66%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
29%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
10%
Resistencia 1+ goals
68%
Resistencia 2+ goals
31%
Resistencia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
48%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
34%
level
29%
Resistencia scores more
37%

Resistencia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guaraní de Trinidad face Resistencia (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with Guaraní de Trinidad hosting Resistencia. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guaraní de Trinidad host Resistencia at Estadio Club Guaraní.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.