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Guarani Campinas vs Inter De Limeira — Serie C 2025

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
Preview
23:00
Inter De Limeira
Inter De Limeira
7/27/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 15
Big match
35%
Guarani Campinas
model favours
35%30%35%

Inter De Limeira score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guarani Campinas35%
×Draw30%
Inter De Limeira35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.03
Inter De Limeira
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.20
Inter De Limeira
1.29

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.75
Inter De Limeira
0.86

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Inter De Limeira+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Inter De Limeira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
65%
Guarani Campinas or Inter De Limeira
70%
Draw or Inter De Limeira
65%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
13%
Inter De Limeira wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
64%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
28%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
9%
Inter De Limeira 1+ goals
64%
Inter De Limeira 2+ goals
27%
Inter De Limeira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
50%
Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Inter De Limeira away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.20 + Inter De Limeira defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Inter De Limeira attack 1.29 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
35%
level
30%
Inter De Limeira scores more
35%

Guarani Campinas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Campinas
LDDLW
Limeira
WWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guarani Campinas face Inter De Limeira (Serie C)

Serie C returns with Guarani Campinas hosting Inter De Limeira. Match starts July 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.