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Guangzhou R&F vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
5/19/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F37%
×Draw24%
Henan Jianye39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou R&F
1.55
Henan Jianye
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 121 away

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F
1.59
Henan Jianye
1.09

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F
2.10
Henan Jianye
1.51

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw
61%
Guangzhou R&F or Henan Jianye
76%
Draw or Henan Jianye
63%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
18%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
79%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
46%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
20%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
80%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
47%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
49%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.55

Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more
37%
level
24%
Henan Jianye scores more
39%

Henan Jianye at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guangzhou R&F 1–1 Henan Jianye

Guangzhou R&F and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in Super League on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Guangzhou.