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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
4 – 5
HT: 3 – 2
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
11/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%
×Draw24%
SHANGHAI SIPG36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 122 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.90

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.10

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
64%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or SHANGHAI SIPG
76%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
60%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
20%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
79%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
46%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
21%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
77%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
43%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
53%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.57

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.90 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
40%
level
24%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-4 in Super League on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.