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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shandong Luneng — AFC Champions League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
6/18/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsTianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC42%
×Draw22%
Shandong Luneng35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.81
Shandong Luneng
1.64

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.28
Shandong Luneng
1.27

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00
Shandong Luneng
2.33

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
65%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shandong Luneng
78%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
58%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
22%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
84%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
54%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
27%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
81%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
49%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
54%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
42%
level
22%
Shandong Luneng scores more
35%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–1 Shandong Luneng

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shandong Luneng 2-1 in AFC Champions League on June 18, 2019.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.