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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
3/3/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ58%
×Draw21%
Oriente Petrolero21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.13
Oriente Petrolero
1.21

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 76% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 128 away

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.21
Oriente Petrolero
1.16

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.26
Oriente Petrolero
2.05

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw
79%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Oriente Petrolero
79%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
42%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
36%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
88%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
63%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
35%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
70%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
34%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
73%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.05 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.21 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.16 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
58%
level
21%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
21%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–3 Oriente Petrolero

Oriente Petrolero beat Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3-1 in Primera División on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.