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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2026

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
2/22/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ53%
×Draw23%
Jorge Wilstermann24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.86
Jorge Wilstermann
1.19

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 56% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 123 away

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.21
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.26
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw
76%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Jorge Wilstermann
77%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
47%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
30%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
84%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
55%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
28%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
70%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
33%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
68%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.21 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.86

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
53%
level
23%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
24%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Jorge Wilstermann

Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Jorge Wilstermann drew 2-2 in Primera División on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.