Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2–2 Aurora: Result & Stats

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Aurora

R. Ferrufino 90+9', 41'

A. Flores 47'

Serginho 28' (pen)

11/20/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 20Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ57%

×Draw22%

Aurora21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualberto Villarroel SJExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.13

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.98

Aurora

1.13

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 75% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 131 away

2.15

creates per match

1.03

1.23

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.15

Aurora

1.03

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.23

Aurora

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw

79%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Aurora

78%

Draw or Aurora

43%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

34%

Aurora wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

86%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

59%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

31%

Aurora 1+ goals

68%

Aurora 2+ goals

31%

Aurora 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

73%

Aurora (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.82 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.15 + Aurora defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Aurora attack 1.03 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

57%

level

22%

Aurora scores more

21%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Ferrufino

Gualberto Villarroel SJ · F

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Emerson Velásquez

25'

Jair TorricoPenalty confirmed

28'

SerginhoPenalty

32'

34'

34'

35'

36'

38'

41'

R. Ferrufino↳ B. Sobrero

45+4'

45+2'

47'

55'

55'

55'

55'

O. Blanco← R. Simisterra

60'

Oswaldo Blanco

60'

H. Sánchez← V. Melgar

60'

M. Cabral← Serginho

64'

Cristian Enciso

77'

P. Loza← J. Sanguinetti

77'

A. Seimandi← H. Rodríguez

90'

A. Sánchez← J. Torrico

90+9'

R. Ferrufino↳ S. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GualbertoAurora

Overview

64%Possession36%

18Total Shots13

8Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots13

5On Target4

7Off Target8

6Blocked1

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

408Total Passes231

355Accurate Passes178

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

5Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides5