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Gualaceo SC vs Macara — Copa Ecuador 2022

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
Preview
20:00
Macara
Macara
8/5/2026Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Jorge Andrade
41%
Macara
model favours
34%25%41%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gualaceo SC34%
×Draw25%
Macara41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.33
Macara
1.50

Macara creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.00
Macara
0.67

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
2.33
Macara
1.67

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
59%
Gualaceo SC or Macara
75%
Draw or Macara
66%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
15%
Macara wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
74%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
38%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
15%
Macara 1+ goals
78%
Macara 2+ goals
44%
Macara 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
45%
Macara (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Macara away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.00 + Macara defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Macara attack 0.67 + Gualaceo SC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
34%
level
25%
Macara scores more
41%

Macara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Gualaceo SC score first in only 21% of matches
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • 71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 68% of Gualaceo SC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Macara’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
SC
LDWWL
Macara
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gualaceo SC host Macara

August 5, 2026: Gualaceo SC take on Macara in Copa Ecuador. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gualaceo SC host Macara at Estadio Jorge Andrade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.