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Guadalajara vs La Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Guadalajara
Guadalajara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
La Roda
La Roda
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Pedro Escartín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guadalajara70%
×Draw21%
La Roda9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara
1.82
La Roda
0.49

Guadalajara creates 271% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

creates per match

Guadalajara
1.79
La Roda
0.41

allows per match

Guadalajara
0.58
La Roda
1.85

finishing

Guadalajara+0.00on par
La Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara ↓

La Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guadalajara or draw
91%
Guadalajara or La Roda
79%
Draw or La Roda
30%

Winning margin

Guadalajara wins by 2+
42%
La Roda wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals
84%
Guadalajara 2+ goals
54%
Guadalajara 3+ goals
27%
La Roda 1+ goals
39%
La Roda 2+ goals
9%
La Roda 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara (draw refunded)
88%
La Roda (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 43 matches

La Roda away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara attack 1.79 + La Roda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.82

La Roda attack 0.41 + Guadalajara defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Guadalajara scores more
70%
level
21%
La Roda scores more
9%

Guadalajara at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guadalajara 2 – 1 La Roda

Guadalajara beat La Roda 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Escartín in Guadalajara.