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Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
11/5/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas40%
×Draw27%
Cruz Azul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.32
Cruz Azul
1.18

Guadalajara Chivas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 157 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
Cruz Azul
1.32

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.04
Cruz Azul
1.22

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
67%
Guadalajara Chivas or Cruz Azul
73%
Draw or Cruz Azul
60%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
18%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
73%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
38%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
15%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
69%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
33%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
55%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
40%
level
27%
Cruz Azul scores more
33%

Guadalajara Chivas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul

Guadalajara Chivas beat Cruz Azul 1-0 in Liga MX on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.