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Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2026

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
11/25/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 32Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Guabirá51%
×Draw23%
Nacional Potosí26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
1.77
Nacional Potosí
1.19

Guabirá creates 49% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 131 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
Nacional Potosí
1.23

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
Nacional Potosí
1.73

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
74%
Guabirá or Nacional Potosí
77%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
49%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
28%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
83%
Guabirá 2+ goals
53%
Guabirá 3+ goals
26%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
70%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
33%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
66%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guabirá scores more
51%
level
23%
Nacional Potosí scores more
26%

Guabirá at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Guabirá 6–1 Nacional Potosí

Guabirá beat Nacional Potosí 6-1 in Primera División on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.