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Groupe Bazano vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
2 – 0
Simba
Simba
10/30/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Groupe Bazano42%
×Draw28%
Simba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.27
Simba
1.01

Groupe Bazano creates 26% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 89 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
Simba
0.84

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
Simba
1.25

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
71%
Groupe Bazano or Simba
72%
Draw or Simba
58%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
19%
Simba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
72%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
36%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
14%
Simba 1+ goals
64%
Simba 2+ goals
27%
Simba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
59%
Simba (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Simba attack 0.84 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
42%
level
28%
Simba scores more
29%

Groupe Bazano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groupe Bazano vs Simba

Groupe Bazano beat Simba 2-0 in Ligue 1 on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.