Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Groupe Bazano vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
1 – 1
Panda B5
Panda B5
10/16/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Gaëtan Kakudji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Groupe Bazano57%
×Draw25%
Panda B518%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.63
Panda B5
0.79

Groupe Bazano creates 106% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 52 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
82%
Groupe Bazano or Panda B5
75%
Draw or Panda B5
43%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
31%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
80%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
48%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
22%
Panda B5 1+ goals
55%
Panda B5 2+ goals
19%
Panda B5 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
76%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.63

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
57%
level
25%
Panda B5 scores more
18%

Groupe Bazano at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Groupe Bazano 1–1 Panda B5

Groupe Bazano and Panda B5 drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Gaëtan Kakudji in Lubumbashi.