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Groupe Bazano vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
1 – 0
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
3/1/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Groupe Bazano46%
×Draw27%
Lubumbashi Sport27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.36
Lubumbashi Sport
0.97

Groupe Bazano creates 40% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 85 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
73%
Groupe Bazano or Lubumbashi Sport
73%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
54%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
22%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
74%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
39%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
16%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
62%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
25%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
63%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
46%
level
27%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
27%

Groupe Bazano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Groupe Bazano 1–0 Lubumbashi Sport

Groupe Bazano beat Lubumbashi Sport 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.