Groupe Bazano 2–0 Don Bosco: Result & Stats

Groupe Bazano

FT

2 – 0

Don Bosco

5/29/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Groupe Bazano41%

×Draw29%

Don Bosco31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Groupe BazanoExpected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Groupe Bazano

1.22

Don Bosco

1.02

Groupe Bazano creates 20% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 96 away

1.28

creates per match

0.85

1.19

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Groupe Bazano

1.28

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Groupe Bazano

1.19

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw

69%

Groupe Bazano or Don Bosco

71%

Draw or Don Bosco

59%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+

18%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals

70%

Groupe Bazano 2+ goals

34%

Groupe Bazano 3+ goals

12%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

64%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

27%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)

57%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more

41%

level

29%

Don Bosco scores more

31%

Groupe Bazano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff