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Groningen vs FC Volendam — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Groningen
Groningen
Preview
12:00
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
7/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
52%
FC Volendam
model favours
26%22%52%

Groningen score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Groningen26%
×Draw22%
FC Volendam52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.32
FC Volendam
1.97

FC Volendam creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Groningen
1.43
FC Volendam
2.22

allows per match

Groningen
1.71
FC Volendam
1.22

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
48%
Groningen or FC Volendam
78%
Draw or FC Volendam
74%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
11%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
73%
Groningen 2+ goals
38%
Groningen 3+ goals
15%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
86%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
58%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
33%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.43 + FC Volendam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Volendam attack 2.22 + Groningen defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Groningen scores more
26%
level
22%
FC Volendam scores more
52%

FC Volendam at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Groningen
WLLWW
Volendam
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Groningen vs FC Volendam — Match Preview

Groningen face FC Volendam on July 24, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.